miércoles, 28 de diciembre de 2011

Greetings and notice

This blog will be closed until January 15th 2012. You can still navigate the old posts.


We are preparing our team to make more fluent the stream of news for next year, so welcome back anytime after holidays.


Please have a happy new year!


Cuevas Consulting


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Este blog permanecerá cerrado hasta el 15 de Enero de 2012. Usted podrá navegar las noticias igualmente.


Estamos preparando nuestro equipo para incrementar el flujo de noticias el próximo año, así que bienvenidos después de las vacaciones.


Por favor tengan un buen año! 


Cuevas Consulting 

miércoles, 21 de diciembre de 2011

España y Noruega colaboran en el campo de las nuevas tecnologías medioambientales

A través del mecanismo financiero del Espacio Económico Europeo (EEE), España y Noruega van a colaborar en investigación y desarrollo en el campo de las energías renovables. Se dará especial relevancia a la energía hidraúlica, solar, eólica y marina.

El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores Jonas Gahr Støre explica que: “Los fondos del EEE contribuirán a reforzar la colaboración entre Noruega y los países receptores. Facilitamos ese refuerzo mediante este programa de energías renovables, entre otros. España y Noruega hacen buena pareja en el campo de las tecnologías medioambientales”.


Se refiere a que España está entre los mayores y más avanzados productores de nuevas energías renovables.

En total, España recibirá unos 360 millones de coronas noruegas (aproximadamente 46 millones de euros) de los fondos del EEE hasta el 2014. De ellos, unos 140 millones de coronas serán destinados al desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías medioambientales. Innovation Norway contribuirá a sentar las bases de una intensificación de la colaboración entre el tejido empresarial español y noruego y sus centros de investigación junto al Centro para el Desarrollo Tecnológico e Industrial (CDTI) quien gestiona el programa por parte española.

El acuerdo se firmó hoy en Madrid. La igualdad de género es también un área prioritaria en España. El representante de Noruega será el Defensor de la Igualdad de género y la integración. Este programa contribuirá, entre otras cosas, a fomentar la iniciativa empresarial entre las mujeres, la paridad en los consejos de administración, la integración de las mujeres rom e inmigrantes, y a combatir la violencia contra las mujeres. A este proyecto se han destinado cerca de 90 millones de coronas noruegas.

Además de los fondos destinados a energías renovables e igualdad, se han asignado unos 30 millones de coronas noruegas a un programa de becas para estudiantes e investigadores, 35 millones a un fondo para ONGs y 35 millones para proyectos culturales comunes.

Los fondos del EEE son la contribución de Noruega a la reducción de las diferencias sociales y económicas en Europa. Este apoyo debe también servir para reforzar la colaboración entre Noruega y los países receptores. El mecanismo financiero del EEE tendrá unos fondos de 14.000 millones de coronas noruegas (unos 1795 millones de euros) hasta el 2014. De ellos, Noruega aporta un 97%, mientras que Islandia y Liechtenstein asumen el resto.

Finance minister warns of likely spending cuts and tax hikes next year

The Finnish government plans to cut spending and raise taxes next spring; Minister of Finance Jutta Urpilainen (SDP) says that the measures probably cannot be avoided.


The belt-tightening stems from a government decision according to which the state debt is to be brought down by 2015, and the budget deficit must be cut to one per cent of GDP.
Market development in recent months have made that goal more difficult to reach. According to a forecast put out by the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday, the Finnish state debt will continue to grow in the upcoming two years. Reversing the trend would require tax hikes and spending cuts worth billions and euros, unless there is a significant improvement in the economic situation.
      
Economic growth next year should be 0.4 per cent, according to the most recent forecast by the Ministry of Finance. In the autumn, the expectation was for 1.8 per cent growth.
The forecast extends to 2013, when Finland is to borrow nearly eight billion euros. The government’s target for a deficit of one per cent would be the equivalent of about EUR 2 billion.
If the situation were the same two years later, the government’s policy programme would require spending cuts and tax increass worth about EUR 6 billion.
      
The government will be examining the economic situation on Wednesday evening. Decisions are to be made in March when the budget framework for the following year is set up.
The further spending cuts and tax hikes are expected to be difficult. The EUR 2.5 billion that was decided last summer caused considerable pain among the six government parties. The measures are to strike an even balance between lower spending and higher taxes.
      
Finance Minister Urpilainen would not say on Tuesday how far the balancing efforts would go and what they would target. Not even the National Coalition Party, which generally puts a high priority on financial discipline, is expected to push for as severe measures as the forecasts would indicate.
      
The chairman of the Finance Committee of the Finnish Parliament, Kimmo Sasi (Nat. Coalition Party), says that while EUR five billion would be an optimum goal, three billion would be realistic.
“On the tax side the goal is relatively easy, if VAT were raised by two percentage points”. Raising the VAT rate to 25 per cent would bring in about a billion euros more in tax revenue.


The Social Democrats have been opposed to Sasi’s proposed VAT hike. Urpilainen said on Tuesday that she was not taking a stand on the matter yet.
      
In addition to budget cuts and tax increases, Urpilainen emphasised the importance of municipal reform and other structural changes. “We mustn’t make any more cuts than is absolutely necessary”, Urpilainen said.



Source: HELSINGIN SANOMAT - INTERNATIONAL EDITION - BUSINESS & FINANCE

Sampo Bank: Finland is entering into recession

Sampo Bank estimates that Finland’s economy has sunk into recession. GNP is likely to decline during the current quarter and it will continue to do so until next summer.


A country is said to be in recession if its GNP decreases in two consecutive quarters.
“The bottom will be hit next summer. After that there is a small chance for a slight growth. Still, it pays to take into consideration that longer predictions are based on many uncertain assumptions”, says Sampo Bank leading advisor Lauri Uotila.


The sector worst hit by the eurozone debt crisis is the exports industry. Finland’s exporting has already diminished clearly.


Growth in the construction industry has ground to a halt, but the field of retail and wholesale trade is still growing in the country.
The level of unemployment Uotila expects to remain put at around eight per cent. The number of those employed will reduce somewhat through people entering into retirement.
“There is no reason why consumer demand could not stay high. Salaries and pensions keep rising and almost everybody is able to keep their jobs”, Uotila adds.
      
The Sampo Bank prediction is based on the assumption that the eurozone will clear its debt crisis through slow adjustments and without a fully-blown financial crisis, which would be caused for example by the collapse of a major European bank.


Chief Economist Pasi Kuoppamäki does not believe that the euro will collapse. He expects that the agreed measures, such as the strengthening of the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and next spring’s setting up of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), will be enough to balance the situation. “Even if Italy had to pay a slightly higher interest until then for its financing, this is not a huge issue for its national economy. Investors will still be found interested in investing in Italian bonds.”
      
For those with mortgages 2012 will be “relatively easy time”, Uotila says. Interest rates on loans are likely to drop below the inflation rate, which means a negative real interest rate. In other words, the inflation will reduce the loan capital spontaneously. Salaries will grow by about three per cent on average. Uotila does not believe the housing prices will start tumbling.


“The nominal prices may be reduced a little bit, but in real terms the prices will remain the same. Even if debts are record-high in relation to the available income, the loan servicing costs are very low”, Uotila concludes.


Source: HELSINGIN SANOMAT - INTERNATIONAL EDITION - BUSINESS & FINANCE

lunes, 19 de diciembre de 2011

La holandesa Swedish Automobile presentó hoy una solicitud de quiebra de su filial Saab Automobile

La holandesa Swedish Automobile presentó hoy una solicitud de quiebra de su filial Saab Automobile ante el tribunal de Vänersborg, en Suecia, por la imposibilidad de asegurar la viabilidad económica del fabricante de coches sueco.
La decisión obedece a que la china Youngman, con la que tenía un acuerdo de venta de Saab, ha renunciado a la operación tras no poder convencer a General Motors, antigua dueña de la firma sueca pero todavía propietaria intelectual de la tecnología del fabricante, informó Swedish Automobile en un comunicado.
Stefan Lövren, portavoz del sindicato IF Metalls, el más representado en Saab Automobile, mostró su esperanza de que aparezca otro comprador que pueda rescatar en el último momento a la firma de lo que parece la desaparición tras dos años de agonía.
El anuncio de Swedish Automobile (SWAN) -antes conocida como Spyker Cars- llegó pocas horas antes de que la corte de Vänersborg tuviese previsto pronunciarse sobre la petición del administrador judicial de Saab de suspender el proceso de reestructuración en el que estaba inmerso el fabricante sueco desde hacía tres meses.
Ese tribunal había autorizado el pasado 31 de octubre, tras una primera interrupción, reanudar la reestructuración después de que días antes SWAN llegara a un acuerdo con los inversores chinos Youngman y Pang Da para venderles Saab por 100 millones de euros.
Pero la operación estaba parada desde hacía semanas por la negativa de General Motors a autorizar el acuerdo, ya que podría perjudicar sus propios intereses en el mercado chino.
La multinacional estadounidense había rechazado también otra solución alternativa en la que SWAN mantenía una participación en Saab y un banco chino entraba como inversor.
Youngman y Pang Da pretendían invertir 610 millones de euros a partir de 2012, además de 50 millones comprometidos en un acuerdo de financiación.
El fabricante sueco aspiraba a vender entre 35.000 y 50.000 coches en 2012, 78.000-86.000 en 2013 y cerca de 200.000 en 2016, la tercera parte de ellos en China, donde también se construirían vehículos, manteniendo además la planta de Trollhättan (Suecia).
Aunque la plantilla de Saab Automobile ha quedado reducida a algo más de 3000 trabajadores, se calcula que cerca de 10.000 empleos en la zona dependen del fabricante de forma directa o indirecta.

UN ACUERDO PARA EL OLVIDO

SWAN y los inversores chinos firmaron hace meses un acuerdo por el que éstos se comprometían a invertir 245 millones y participar en el accionariado de Saab Automobile. Pero las dificultades de la firma sueca, cuya producción está paralizada desde hace ocho meses y a cuyos empleados se les adeuda una nómina, provocaron el malestar de los inversores chinos, que dieron por roto el acuerdo.
Saab Automobile suspendió pagos por primera vez en febrero de 2009 y permaneció seis meses bajo administración judicial. A pesar de un préstamo de 400 millones de euros del Banco Europeo de Inversiones avalado por el Gobierno sueco y de otras inyecciones de capital, la situación fue empeorando progresivamente.
La aparición hace casi dos años como compradora de la firma holandesa evitó que la estadounidense General Motors, propietaria de Saab, la desmantelara prematuramente, como tenía previsto
Agencias DPA, EFE y AP

miércoles, 7 de diciembre de 2011

Suecia dice a España e Italia que no tendrán "luna de miel" con los mercados

Bruselas, 30 nov (EFE).- El ministro de Finanzas sueco, Anders Borg, advirtió hoy a España e Italia de que no tendrán "una luna de miel" con los mercados y que deben apostar por la austeridad como principal herramienta para superar la crisis.
"Tenemos que ver programas muy fuertes de consolidación fiscal tanto en Italia como en España", declaró Borg, quien participa hoy en la reunión del Ecofin en Bruselas.
Bajo su punto de vista, es esencial que ambos países reduzcan más su gasto público para que los mercados recuperen la confianza en la zona euro.
Según el ministro, "ahora se abre una nueva oportunidad" de llevar a cabo nuevas medidas de austeridad, ya que Italia y España "tienen dos nuevos gobiernos" que "pueden sacar todos los esqueletos del armario", un paso a su juicio necesario para que la Unión Europea (UE) pueda fortalecer sus cortafuegos.
España e Italia tienen que saber que los mercados no ofrecen "lunas de miel" en la forma de una tregua, recalcó.
Mario Monti sustituyó hace unas semanas a Silvio Berlusconi al frente del Ejecutivo italiano, mientras que en España, el líder del Partido Popular, Mariano Rajoy, consiguió el pasado 20 de noviembre la mayoría absoluta, y tomará posesión como nuevo presidente del Gobierno a finales del mes que viene.
El ministro sueco indicó que si estos dos países toman este tipo de medidas, la Unión Europea afrontará "la cumbre del 9 de diciembre con mejor pie" porque aumentará la credibilidad en los mercados.
Borg se mostró favorable a que los Estados miembros de la eurozona pacten nuevas políticas para fortalecer y homogeneizar la gobernanza económica en Europa.
"No puede haber una solución a largo plazo sin una forma de gobernanza económica más fuerte en el Eurogrupo", dijo el responsable de las Finanzas de Suecia.
En este sentido, consideró imprescindible que este paso se dé para poder hablar de un mayor papel del BCE.
En opinión de Borg, la eurozona debe "mantener todas las opciones sobre la mesa", incluida la del Banco Central.
"Considero que la estabilidad del precio está asegurada (...) si viéramos una política fiscal reforzada ellos podrían tener más espacio de maniobra", en referencia al BCE.

martes, 6 de diciembre de 2011

GASTRO & VIINIEXPO - 14-16.03.2012 - Helsinki


Del 14 al 16 de Marzo se realizará GASTRO y VIINIEXPO. Cuevas Consulting los invita a
participar con sus marcas o clientes de ésta interesante oportunidad comercial.

Las ferias ”Gastro” y ”Viiniexpo” reúne a los actores más importantes de la región del Mar
Báltico (Suecia, Dinamarca y Estonia entre otros) Se realizará del 14 al 16 de Marzo de 2012
en Helsinki y reúne a la cadena HORECA en su plenitud, así como a los más importantes
importadores y comerciantes de vinos.

En su última edición (2010) unos 18000 profesionales visitaron la feria:

- Restaurant 20%

- Cocinas Profesionales,
catering 19%

- Food and beverage
industry 7%

- Café, fast food,
deli, petrol station 6%

- Trade 6%

- Hotels and other
accommodations 5%

Grupo de productos:
1 Elementos para la cocina y comidas
2 Cervezas, cidras y otras bebidas sin alcohol
3 Equipamiento industrial de cocina
4 Equipamiento de cocina
5 Muebles para cocina
6 Ropa de trabajo y accesorios
7 Limpieza e higiene
8 Empaque
9 Tecnologia de la información y ayuda administrativa
10 Organizaciones y publicaciones del tema
11 Otros productos y servicios relacionados

Cuevas Consulting ofrece los siguientes servicios, para esta Feria:

A- Informe de Feria por grupo de productos

B- Acompañamiento para grupos de visitantes (organización, reservas, etc.)
C- Organización de stand (alquiler, comunicaciones, personal, construcción, etc. Válido hasta el 16.1.2012)

Los presupuestos varían en función de los alcances de cada proyecto. Para
solicitar presupuesto:
ref. : gastro&viini Finland 2012 

domingo, 20 de noviembre de 2011

Wärtsilä in talks to buy British Hamworthy for EUR 440 million

Hamworthy manufactures hi-tech products, systems, and services to the marine and oil and gas industries.


The Finnish engineering company Wärtsilä confirmed in its statement on Thursday that it is willing to pay EUR 440 million for the purchase of the UK-based Hamworthy plc.

According to the press release, Wärtsilä is ”in advanced discussions” with Hamworthy regarding a potential GBP 8.25 (EUR 9.6) per share cash offer.
The announcement made by the companies does not amount to an announcement of a firm intention to make an offer and there can be no certainty that an offer will be made.
      
Wärtsilä is to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Hamworthy by December 15th or announce that it does not intend to make an offer.

Wärtsilä is the leading manufacturer of ship machinery, providing engines and generators for all types of vessels as well as power plant technology.
The company’s market value was EUR 4.2 billion on Thursday.

Hamworthy provides high technology products, systems, and services to the marine and oil and gas industries.
Its market value was EUR 360 million on Thursday.
      
Wärtsilä’s announcement means that the company is ready to pay a premium of 22 per cent on Hamworthy’s closing share price of GBP 6.75 on Thursday.

Helsingin Sanomat - International Edition

miércoles, 16 de noviembre de 2011

The impact of the crisis in Sweden

The European debt crisis has reached Sweden. Many forecasters, including for the Swedish government, believe this downturn will be short. But nothing supports this scenario. On the contrary, reality has caught up to the European economies, so Swedish growth recovery won’t return to normal for several years. For 2012 The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise expect growth of only 0.2 percent.



“We are not seeing an ordinary recession, but rather a structural debt crisis, which will remain deep for long. Any recovery will demand significant political reform. But in the best of scenarios, we see normal growth returning to Europe and Sweden only in a few years,” comments Stefan Fölster, Chief Economist at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise.
The downturn in the Swedish economy will be substantial in the coming quarter, starting with larger companies, especially those exporting to Europe. But, we see those that export to China and Asia doing better. As suppliers to European exporters become affected, the negative spiral of the crisis will spread throughout the Swedish economy.
Industrial regions will experience the greatest negative effects in 2012, except for regions with significant mining industries.
Many local governments have been entirely too optimistic in their budgets, and will be forced to cut back when tax revenues don’t meet forecasts. But we do see that local governments who have worked to improve the local business climate are now facing the crises with greater stability,” concluded Mr. Fölster.
The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise Q3 Economic report is titled “Reality check”.

Finnish Business outlook weakened notably during the autumn

According to the Business Tendency Survey conducted by EK in October, the business outlook of Finnish companies already took a turn for the worse in the late summer and early autumn. The third-quarter trend, especially in manufacturing, was weaker than expected.


Divergence between different sectors remains highThe business outlook for the coming months has deteriorated significantly and the degree of divergence between companies and sectors has continued to grow. Business is expected to suffer in all the main sectors during the next six months. 

Industrial production and service sector sales, however, are forecast to grow very slightly during the coming six months. In construction, production will remain at its current level. Labour force expectations are cautious in all sectors, with employment in manufacturing expected to even drop slightly.

The manufacturing industry business outlook indicator for October was -20 (+9 in July). Of the respondent companies, 16% expected the economy to pick up towards the end of the year and early next year, while 36% thought the situation would take a turn for the worse. 

In October, the business outlook indicator for construction declined to -45 (+7 in July). 3% of respondents expected an improvement in the economy and 48% expected a deterioration.
 
The outlook for service companies in October declined to -15 (+11 in July). 8% of companies expected the economy to strengthen, while 23% expected a turn for the worse. 

Early-autumn performance weaker than expectedThe manufacturing companies that responded to the survey received fewer new orders in the third quarter than in the second. The trend was weaker than expected three months ago. Orders in the construction sector were also slightly down. Manufacturing companies’ order backlog declined slightly and is currently described as somewhat below average. Similarly, the construction sector’s order backlog shrank to slightly below the normal level. 

Finished goods inventories grew in manufacturing to slightly above normal. Construction companies still have few unsold homes, even though the number increased compared with early summer. 

Manufacturing companies that responded to the survey expect the number of new orders they will receive during the latter part of the year to remain unchanged. Orders are expected to be down slightly in the construction sector.

Manufacturing output fell clearly below expectations, as production quantities began to decline moderately in late summer. However, output is forecast to grow slightly during the latter part of the year and early next year. Construction output grew moderately, although production figures for the end of the year are not expected to change much. 

In the service sectors, sales growth was fairly brisk in the early autumn. Growth is forecast to slow down somewhat in the latter part of the year, although according to estimates, the growth rate will remain moderate. 

Manufacturing companies’ capacity utilisation fell slightly, and is now below the long-term average level. In October, 37 per cent of manufacturing companies had some idle capacity (28 per cent in July). 

Employment growth expectations quite cautiousThe labour force grew somewhat in construction and services. The employment trend in construction was weaker than estimated, with the labour force contracting slightly. In construction and services, the labour force is forecast to remain at its current level during the latter part of the year. The manufacturing labour force is expected to continue to decline somewhat. 

Rise in prices and costs is expected to level out slightlyThe rise in sales prices slowed down in all the main sectors. In manufacturing the rise was small, while in construction it came to a complete halt in the third quarter. The rise in costs continued, but upward pressures on costs levelled off somewhat. 

Service companies expect the rise in prices to slightly pick up again during the latter part of the year. In manufacturing, the rise is expected to continue to slow down, and in construction, prices are expected to begin to decline somewhat. Costs in the services sector are expected to continue their general rise, while in other sectors the rise in costs would continue to decelerate. 

Profitability improved somewhat in manufacturing and services. In construction, profitability remained unchanged. Future profitability is estimated to remain unchanged in construction and to improve slightly in manufacturing and services. 

Labour shortages continued to be commonplace in construction and services. 31% of construction companies and 18% of service companies suffered from a lack of skilled labour, whereas only 4% of respondents in the industrial sector suffered from labour shortages. Insufficient demand was the main bottleneck in manufacturing, with 35% of companies identifying it as a problem. 

EK Business Tendency Survey

The Confederation of Finnish Industries EK’s Business Tendency Survey is published four times per year. The survey has been carried out regularly since 1966. 1,016 companies employing approximately 270,000 people in Finland replied to the survey carried out in October 2011.


03.11.2011
Confederation of Finnish Industries
http://www.ek.fi/ek/en/business_outlook_weakened_notably_during_the_autumn-8126

Increased imports and exports in Norway

In October, the Norwegian trade surplus came to NOK 26.7 billion; a rise of 1.9 per cent from the same period last year.


The export growth was mainly due to higher prices of both crude oil and natural gas. Several commodity groups accounted for the increase in imports.

Exports of goods, excluding ships and oil platforms, came to NOK 70.7 billion in October, while imports reached NOK 44.0 billion. Compared to October 2010, the import and export rose by 7.7 and 5.5 per cent respectively.

The total export volume of crude oil in October; 37.2 million barrels, was the lowest recorded this year. The export value amounted to NOK 23.5 billion, up 6 per cent from October last year, due to higher prices. At the same time, the export value fell 12 per cent from September to October this year.

The export value of natural gas in October came to NOK 17.8 billion; 9 per cent higher than last year, due to rising prices. The exported volume, on the other hand, fell slightly.

The commodity group including machinery and transport equipment, which are our main import articles, showed an increase of 16 per cent in total, amounting to NOK 16.0 billion. While all types of machinery rose, the imports of telecommunications apparatus and equipment fell by 6 per cent, to NOK 1.6 billion. Passenger cars also showed an upturn of 18 per cent, reaching NOK 2.9 billion.

The import value of manufactured goods and miscellaneous manufactured articles accounted for NOK 6.9 billion and NOK 7.2 billion respectively – up 12 and 7 per cent. Amongst manufactured goods, metals and manufactures of metals showed the sharpest growth, while clothing and professional, scientific controlling instruments took the lead among the manufactured articles.

While food and beverages rose, the imports of inedible crude materials and mineral fuels dropped.

2011-11-16

norwaypost.no

España y Noruega colaboran en el campo de las nuevas tecnologías medioambientales

A través del mecanismo financiero del Espacio Económico Europeo (EEE), España y Noruega van a colaborar en investigación y desarrollo en el campo de las energías renovables. Se dará especial relevancia a la energía hidraúlica, solar, eólica y marina.

El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores Jonas Gahr Støre explica que: “Los fondos del EEE contribuirán a reforzar la colaboración entre Noruega y los países receptores. Facilitamos ese refuerzo mediante este programa de energías renovables, entre otros. España y Noruega hacen buena pareja en el campo de las tecnologías medioambientales”.

Se refiere a que España está entre los mayores y más avanzados productores de nuevas energías renovables.

En total, España recibirá unos 360 millones de coronas noruegas (aproximadamente 46 millones de euros) de los fondos del EEE hasta el 2014. De ellos, unos 140 millones de coronas serán destinados al desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías medioambientales. Innovation Norway contribuirá a sentar las bases de una intensificación de la colaboración entre el tejido empresarial español y noruego y sus centros de investigación junto al Centro para el Desarrollo Tecnológico e Industrial (CDTI) quien gestiona el programa por parte española.

El acuerdo se firmó hoy en Madrid. La igualdad de género es también un área prioritaria en España. El representante de Noruega será el Defensor de la Igualdad de género y la integración. Este programa contribuirá, entre otras cosas, a fomentar la iniciativa empresarial entre las mujeres, la paridad en los consejos de administración, la integración de las mujeres rom e inmigrantes, y a combatir la violencia contra las mujeres. A este proyecto se han destinado cerca de 90 millones de coronas noruegas.

Además de los fondos destinados a energías renovables e igualdad, se han asignado unos 30 millones de coronas noruegas a un programa de becas para estudiantes e investigadores, 35 millones a un fondo para ONGs y 35 millones para proyectos culturales comunes.

Los fondos del EEE son la contribución de Noruega a la reducción de las diferencias sociales y económicas en Europa. Este apoyo debe también servir para reforzar la colaboración entre Noruega y los países receptores. El mecanismo financiero del EEE tendrá unos fondos de 14.000 millones de coronas noruegas (unos 1795 millones de euros) hasta el 2014. De ellos, Noruega aporta un 97%, mientras que Islandia y Liechtenstein asumen el resto.

Source: Real Embajada de Noruega en España

domingo, 13 de noviembre de 2011

Economic experts warn of hard times ahead

Finnish economic experts are split into two camps in their predictions on economic trends in the near future. Sixten Korkman, managing director of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) and Pasi Holm, the head of Pellervo Economic Research predict that the economy will experience negative growth.


Meanwhile, Seija Ilmakunnas, head of the Labour Institute for Economic Research, and Juhana Vartiainen, head of research at Sweden’s National Institute of Economic Research, expect slight economic growth in 2012.

     

The European Commission expects Finland to reach 1.4 per cent growth, whereas the average growth for all countries in the eurozone is forecast at 0.5 per cent. The forecast is based on information that was available before the crises in Greece Italy flared up.


Some experts actually expect the spring to bring new life to the economy, but the growth will be significantly weaker than the Finnish government had previously assumed.

     

The first signs of crisis consciousness are already apparent. The economic journal Talouselämä wrote on Thursday that the Ministry of Finance has urged other ministries to prepare for further cuts in the upcoming framework talks.


“We are currently drawing up various contingency plans, because nobody knows what the economy will look like a month from now”, said Minister of Finance Jutta Urpilainen (SDP).


The framework for state finances for 2013-2015 will be set in March.

     

Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen (Nat. Coalition Party), Finance Minister Urpilainen, and all economic experts interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat agree that the government should not take fright and should not start scaring Finns with upcoming cost cutting measures.


The top ministers in the government insist that heads are cool. No further cost cuts are coming until the late winter.


Urpilainen says that the framework talks in March will be the right time and place to assess whether or not additional measures are needed.

     

Korkman and the other economic experts expect the government to take action in the spring to institute extensive structural changes.


“Working careers need to be extended and the retirement age must be raised for the employment level to rise and for the tax base to grow stronger”, Korkman says.


Vartiainen agrees, adding that Finland needs to recruit more labour from abroad.

     

Pasi Holm sees a need for extensive changes in the government’s policy programme. “The programme is based on an assumption of 2.5 to 3 per cent annual growth, which is not going to happen.”


Seija Ilmakunnas wants to see the framework agreement for the labour market to be put into shape. “After that we need to implement the municipal and service structure reforms. They will bring savings.”

     

Katainen and Urpilainen also emphasise the importance of the municipal reform.


The government programme includes a statement according to which state indebtedness needs to be reduced by 2015.


The way things look now Korkman does not expect this to happen because the economy will be shrinking and unemployment might rise.

     

Sixten Korkman is also worried about a “self-detonating trap” that he says lies hidden in the government programme.


The government has promised to cut spending and raise taxes if the debt does not go down.


“Therefore, the government must deepen the recession by tightening financial policy”, Korkman laments. 



HELSINGIN SANOMAT

INTERNATIONAL EDITION - BUSINESS & FINANCE

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Economic+experts+warn+of+hard+times+ahead/1135269845729